Geographer Had Predicted Osama In Abbottabad

An amazing prediction by a UCLA Geographer and his students on the possible location of Osama Bin Laden as far back as in 2009.

...... predictions of UCLA geographer Thomas Gillespie, who, along with colleague John Agnew and a class of undergraduates, authored a 2009 paper predicting the terrorist’s whereabouts, were none too shabby. According to a probabilistic model they created, there was an 80.9% chance that bin Laden was hiding out in Abbottabad, Pakistan, where he was killed last night. And they correctly predicted that he would be in a large town, not a cave.

And it's not as if they were using some classified information or techniques to make such a prediction.

“It’s not my thing to do this type of [terrorism] stuff,” he says. “But the same theories we use to study endangered birds can be used to do this.”

A lot of knowledge is interrelated like that. So one could study endangered birds, and the same mathematical formalism can be used in a military operation. Or one could study transport phenomenon in solids, and apply it to the financial markets. Not unheard of.

Zz.

Social Security Numbers Are Easy to Guess

This is rather disconcerting.

This report discusses the fact that many of the things that the Social Security Administration does to prevent fraud, and what some people put out (such as their birth dates) on social networking websites such as Facebook, may allow crooks to make a good guess at their social security numbers!

On the surface, the process seems like it would lead to randomized--and thus secure--numbers. But it doesn't. When economist Alessandro Acquisti and computer scientist Ralph Gross of Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, compared SSA's public death records with birth data, they found that area numbers are not rotated until all 9999 serial numbers have been assigned. So instead of each of New York's 85 area numbers being the possible starting three digits for any Social Security number on any given day, Social Security numbers are assigned essentially in order: 576-32-0001 is followed immediately by 576-32-0002, etc. That means a potential thief can narrow down a number simply by knowing the date (often some 6 to 11 weeks after birth) on which one received it. After 1989, individuals started receiving Social Security numbers at birth, rather than at their discretion (often when they began their first job), so pinpointing these people's numbers is especially easy, says Acquisti.

So easy in fact that Acquisti and Gross were able to do it themselves. Using fairly standard computer algorithms, the duo predicted the first five digits of Social Security numbers for people born after 1989 44% of the time on the very first try. On a handful of attempts, they managed to get all nine digits on the first try, but at the very least they could predict the full numbers of 8.5% of those born after 1989 in fewer than 1000 tries, they report online today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Horrors!

This paper is an open access article which you can get from here.

Zz.